Gold Price Forecast and Near-Record Outlook 2026

Exclusive: Gold Holds Firm Above $3,640 as Markets Await the Fed's "Scissorhands" Moment 

Date: September 15, 2025

Source: Analysis of World Gold Council's Weekly Markets Monitor (see report)

Quick snapshot: gold closed last week at $3,651/oz, up 1.6% on the week and roughly 40% year-to-date. The precious metal is consolidating near historic highs as global markets brace for a pivotal Federal Reserve decision that could reshape expectations for inflation and growth — key drivers behind our short-term gold price forecast.

What this means for investors: Expect heightened volatility around the Fed announcement; watch real rates, the USD and ETF flows for the clearest signals of whether gold will break to new highs or pull back to technical support. (Price and data cited above per World Gold Council; price source: LBMA/COMEX spot close, timestamped to market close UTC.)

Global Macro Snapshot: A Week of Divergent Pressures

Last week delivered a mix of economic data and political events that helped underpin gold's safe-haven bid and shaped near-term gold price expectations. Below we break the key datapoints into regional takeaways and explain why each matters for gold prices and the broader market.

United States — mixed inflation, softer labor signals

• CPI (MoM) surprised to the upside at +0.4%, the fastest monthly increase in seven months — a short-term inflation uptick that tends to support gold via weaker real rates and inflation hedging demand (source: BLS, week of Sept 9).
• Initial jobless claims rose to 263K (+27K), pointing to a cooling labor market that increases the probability of Fed easing and is typically bullish for gold prices through lower real yields and USD pressure.

Europe — political risk meets steady policy

• France experienced political turbulence after a no-confidence sequence and appointment of a new prime minister; Fitch downgraded France’s sovereign rating to A+. Political risk can lift safe-haven flows into gold and other precious metals.
• At the same time, the ECB held policy steady (quoted here at ~2%); a divergence between political stress and steady central-bank policy can sustain demand for gold as an insurance asset.

Asia — deflationary signals in China, mixed Japan growth

• China’s CPI (YoY) printed -0.4%, indicating persistent deflationary pressure that reduces local consumer demand but can spur policy easing — a dynamic that affects global metal demand and USD liquidity conditions.
• Japan revised Q2 GDP up to +2.2% YoY, yet snap elections introduce political uncertainty; stronger growth in Japan can be supportive for industrial metals while gold benefits from risk-off episodes tied to politics.

Table 1: Key Economic Data (week of Sept 9)

Region Indicator Result Why it matters for gold
US	CPI (MoM)	+0.4%	Inflation uptick can reduce real yields and support gold demand.
US	Jobless Claims	263K (↑27K)	Cooling labor market raises odds of Fed easing — typically bullish for gold.
EU	France Credit Rating	Downgraded to A+	Elevates political risk premium and safe-haven flows.
CN	CPI (YoY)	-0.4%	Deflationary pressure points to potential policy easing and mixed commodity demand.
JP	GDP (Q2 YoY)	+2.2% (revised up)	Stronger growth can tighten financial conditions, but politics may trigger safe-haven flows.

Notes & sources: data cited above from official releases (BLS, national agencies) and market reporting for the week of Sept 9 — check timestamps on each release when using the figures for trading decisions. For quick visual context, see the accompanying chart: YTD gold price vs. headline CPI trends (chart referenced in article; click to expand).

Gold's Technical Ascent: Breaking the "Triangle" Pattern

Technical snapshot (daily chart as of market close Sept 12, 2025): gold’s momentum remains bullish after a clear breakout from a long-consolidating triangle continuation pattern — a classic breakout signal that suggests the prior uptrend is resuming. In plain terms: the chart structure implies the market is more likely to continue higher than to reverse, provided key support holds.

Immediate market focus is on the short-term resistance band at $3,664–$3,676/oz. A decisive daily close above that zone would increase the odds of an extension toward the next targets below; failure to hold the breakout would point to a pullback to support zones.

• Initial resistance: $3,700/oz — first technical ceiling where profit-taking could emerge.
• Key channel resistance: $3,822/oz — mid-term target if momentum remains intact.
• Primary triangle target: $3,840/oz — measured target derived from the triangle's height and the classic breakout projection.

Momentum indicators (daily RSI/MACD) are elevated but not yet at clear exhaustion levels; open interest and positioning do not show an overcrowded long, which leaves scope for further upside in the near term. That said, traders should monitor the breakout confirmation and watch for divergences on the indicators as early signs of fatigue.

Two practical scenarios for traders & investors (price forecast context):

• Bull case (breakout confirmed): Daily close > $3,676 with rising volume and no negative divergence — target range $3,822–$3,840 within weeks; odds improve if the Fed signals dovish guidance (supports gold via lower real rates and USD softness).
• Bear case (failed breakout): Rejection at resistance and declining momentum could push gold back to $3,560–$3,580 support; a sustained break below $3,500 would negate the triangle breakout and favor a deeper correction.

Table 2: Gold Key Technical Levels (daily)

Resistance Support
$3,664 - $3,676**	$3,580*
$3,700*	$3,560
$3,822*	$3,512 - $3,500*
$3,840**	$3,437*

Note: * to ** denotes increasing importance of the level. Chart reference: daily gold price chart showing triangle breakout and measured targets (see embedded chart above). Technical readings timestamped to market close (UTC) on Sept 12, 2025. For trading, pair these technical signals with macro indicators (inflation, Fed expectations, ETF flows and futures positioning) for a complete view.

The Fedward Scissorhands Dilemma: Growth vs. Inflation

The Federal Reserve meeting (scheduled Sept 17–18, 2025) is the dominant near-term catalyst for gold prices. Markets are pricing a high probability of a 25 basis point cut (CME FedWatch shows implied odds; check realtime feed), though commentary over the weekend opened the possibility of a larger move. For clarity, market-implied expectations (Fed funds futures) and central-bank guidance will determine whether this event becomes a multi-week tailwind for gold.

How rate moves affect gold: cuts tend to lower real rates and can weaken the USD — both supportive for the precious metal. Historically, cutting cycles that prioritized growth have correlated with robust gold performance (notably prior easing episodes since 2000), but outcomes depend on the Fed's communication about the pace of future easing.

Scenario-based price guidance (short-term gold price forecast):

• Base case (25bp, somewhat dovish): Fed cuts 25bp and signals gradual easing — expected short-term move toward ~$3,780–$3,820 as real rates ease and ETF demand remains elevated.
• Accelerated easing (50bp or strongly dovish guidance): Larger-than-expected cut or dovish dots could trigger a faster rally, pushing gold toward the $3,822–$3,900+ range as traders price renewed growth-supporting policy.
• Tightening surprises or hawkish tone: If the Fed signals patience and pushes back on easing, gold could retrace to key supports in the $3,560–$3,580 area as real rates firm and USD strengthens.

Practical watchlist for investors and traders: 1) Fed dot-plot and Powell’s tone (dovish vs cautious), 2) Fed funds futures-implied probabilities (CME FedWatch), 3) real yields and the USD index, and 4) ETF flows and COMEX positioning. Combine these indicators with the technical breakout signals discussed earlier for an actionable view on trading or portfolio positioning.

Sources: Federal Reserve calendar, CME FedWatch (futures-implied probabilities), historical gold performance from World Gold Council. (All data and dates are current as of market close in the cited week; verify timestamps before trading.)

Market Positioning: ETFs Carry the Load as Futures Wait

A key dynamic driving recent gold price strength is the steady inflow into physical-backed exchange-traded funds. ETF investors have been the primary buyers in this rally, adding tangible demand that has helped push gold toward near-record levels even before a broad speculative move in futures materializes.

Futures positioning suggests room for further upside if COMEX participants step in. The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) snapshot (data as of Sept 9) shows money managers holding the largest net-long exposure in recent weeks — reported here as 517.6 tonnes in managed-money longs, with conversions to total physical-equivalent positions often cited around 525.22 tonnes depending on the methodology used (see notes below). That indicates growing speculative interest but not yet an extreme that historically signals an immediate top, leaving capacity for additional buying from both funds and futures traders.

Table 3: COMEX Futures Positioning (As of Sept 9)

Trader Category Net Long Position (Tonnes) Weekly Change (Tonnes)
Managed Money	517.6	-7.6
Other Reportables	276.6	+41.6
Producers	-179.5	-22.1
Swap Dealers	-650.7	+28.2
Total Net Long	-35.9	+40.1

Methodology note: COT figures are reported weekly by the CFTC. Converting contracts to tonnes or a physical-equivalent requires price and contract-size assumptions; the 525.22-tonne figure reflects one commonly used conversion and rounding method. For trading use, consult the primary COT files and provider notes to reconcile unit conversions and timestamps.

The Week Ahead: A Fed-Dominated Landscape

ETF flows plus a potential shift in futures positioning set the stage for volatile trading in gold prices this week. Key events and data to monitor (with the potential to move ETF investor behavior and futures positioning):

• Federal Reserve Rate Decision (Sep 17-18): A 25bp cut is widely expected; the dot-plot and Powell’s press conference will be decisive for gold forecasts and positioning.
• US Retail Sales (Sep 17): Strong or weak retail data can shift risk sentiment and either dampen or amplify ETF buying into gold.
• Bank of England Meeting (Sep 19): Though a hold is expected, any dovish hints can add to a broader dovish narrative supporting gold.
• Bank of Japan Meeting (Sep 20): Likely to maintain policy; political uncertainty in Japan may still influence risk-off flows into safe havens.

Investor takeaways & watch points:

• Watch weekly ETF flows (physical demand) versus net changes in managed-money longs in the COT — a shift from ETF-led buying to futures-led buying can accelerate moves higher.
• Monitor sudden spikes in open interest on COMEX and a narrowing bid-ask on big ETFs as signals that a crowded long is forming — these can precede sharp corrections.
• Use the combination of technical breakout confirmation (see triangle breakout) and positioning data to validate tactical trades or re-assess longer-term allocations to the precious metal.

Data sources: CFTC COT reports, ETF providers' weekly flows, World Gold Council positioning analyses. Verify timestamps and conversion methods before executing trades. Chart: ETF inflows vs COMEX longs (interactive chart referenced in article).

Conclusion: The Stage is Set for a Major Move

• Key takeaway: Gold sits at a critical technical and macro juncture — triangle breakout confirmed, strong ETF demand, and a Fed meeting that could validate a shift from inflation-fighting to growth-supportive policy. Taken together, these factors increase the probability of further upside in the gold price over the coming weeks.
• Conditional outlook — two scenarios (1–3 months):Bull (probability ~55%): Fed signals dovish easing and ETF inflows persist — projected range $3,800–$3,900+ (gold price forecast scenario).
• Bear (probability ~45%): Fed guidance is cautious or data re-accelerates inflation — retracement to $3,560–$3,580 support possible.
• Risks & indicators to watch: Fed dot-plot and Powell’s tone, real yields and USD moves, weekly ETF flows, and COMEX positioning (COT). Rapid shifts in any of these can flip the outlook quickly.
• Action for investors: For tactical traders, wait for breakout confirmation above $3,676 with volume or use support-based stops near $3,560. Longer-term investors should consider rebalancing exposure to the precious metal given the changing central-bank regime risk.

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